On The Deals Shaping Our Economy
⚔️ Ukraine: The Drone Dispute
Russian President Vladimir Putin told Trump on Monday that Ukraine conducted a drone attack on one of his official residences—a claim Kyiv immediately denied as a fabrication intended to scuttle peace talks.
Why it matters: Putin signaled Moscow would "revise its negotiating position" based on the alleged attack.
Trump's reaction: The U.S. President said he was "very angry," telling reporters he believed Putin's account.
🗣️ "It's one thing to be offensive... It's another thing to attack his house."
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pushing for a 50-year U.S. security guarantee, arguing the offered 15-year pledge is insufficient to deter future Russian aggression.
🇮🇱 Israel: The Phantom Pardon
Israeli President Isaac Herzog swiftly denied Trump's claim that Herzog had promised a pardon for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
🗣️ "I spoke to the president, he tells me it's on its way. You can't do better than that, right?"
Friction point: Trump claimed Herzog told him a pardon was "on its way," but Herzog’s office stated no such conversation has occurred since the request was submitted.
Behind the scenes: While Trump publicly praised Netanyahu, his aides are reportedly deeply frustrated with the Israeli PM over the slow pace of the Gaza peace process.
📉 Markets: The Great Rotation
U.S. stocks were eclipsed by global markets in 2025, marking a rare year of underperformance for Wall Street as investors diversified.
The spread: The S&P 500 rose 17.4%, significantly undershooting the 29% gain for the MSCI All Country World ex-US index.
The drivers: Investors are spooked by high U.S. valuations, Trump's trade war effects, and a breakthrough by Chinese AI startup DeepSeek that rivals U.S. models at a lower cost.
Winners: South Korea's Kospi soared over 75%, and markets in China, Japan, and Europe outperformed the U.S.
Defensive spending: Tech giants like Alphabet and Meta are spending billions not out of mania, but to protect their quasi-monopolies (Search, Social) from existential threats like ChatGPT.
Inference wars: Nvidia is moving to fix a critical bottleneck.
The chipmaker entered a licensing deal with Groq to speed up "inference"—the phase where AI models generate real-world results.
Why it matters: Lowering inference costs is essential for AI to move from experimentation to everyday use.
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