On The Deals Shaping Our Economy

US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia ended in Switzerland yesterday with "some progress" on how to monitor a future ceasefire, though deep political rifts remain.

Why it matters: As the war nears its fifth year, this is the first concrete sign of traction on logistics, even as the political gap seems unbridgeable.

The US has committed to using intelligence capabilities to ensure compliance with any truce.

  • The backdrop: President Zelenskyy is feeling the heat. Donald Trump is pushing for a deal by summer to clear the decks for US midterm elections.

What they're saying: Zelenskyy sounded a note of cautious optimism regarding the military side of things.

"The military understand how to monitor a ceasefire and the end of the war, if there is political will…Essentially, they have agreed on almost everything there."

President Zelenskyy

The friction: Political issues - specifically control of the Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant are stuck. Zelenskyy noted: "I did not hear the same level of progress as on the military side."

Zuckerberg’s "Big Tobacco" moment ⚖️

Mark Zuckerberg testifies at a landmark Los Angeles trial determining if Meta’s products are deliberately addictive to children.

Why it matters: This is a test case for thousands of similar lawsuits.

A loss for Meta could trigger a flood of litigation comparable to the 1990s crackdown on tobacco companies.

  • The allegations: Plaintiff "K.G.M." claims Instagram addiction caused anxiety and depression.

  • Internal smoking gun? Documents reveal employees flagged the dangers. One researcher bluntly wrote: "IG [Instagram] is a drug... We're basically pushers".

Zuckerberg's role: Files suggest Zuckerberg personally pushed to restore "beauty filters" despite warnings they encouraged body dysmorphia, citing "competitiveness/growth".

Trump targets UK’s Chagos deal 🇬🇧

President Trump is renewing attacks on Prime Minister Keir Starmer's plan to transfer the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, explicitly linking the territory to potential strikes on Iran.

The big picture: The Diego Garcia military base is a strategic linchpin for the US in the Indo-Pacific. Trump fears losing control of the asset amid rising tensions with Tehran.

Direct warning: Trump posted on Truth Social that Starmer is making a "big mistake" entering a lease with Mauritius.

"Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia," Trump wrote, adding in all caps: "DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!"

Bottom line: Press secretary Karoline Leavitt was blunt: "It's coming straight from the horse's mouth."

Saudi’s $3bn bet on Musk 🇸🇦

Saudi Arabia’s state-owned AI company, Humain, has poured $3bn into Elon Musk’s xAI, cementing a deepening alliance between the kingdom and the tech billionaire.

Follow the money: The investment is part of Riyadh's aggressive push to diversify its economy and become a global AI hub.

  • Humain, funded by the Public Investment Fund, is now a "significant minority shareholder" in xAI.

  • The goal: Roll out xAI's Grok chatbot across Saudi Arabia and build 500MW of data center capacity.

What they're saying: Humain CEO Tareq Amin called the SpaceX-xAI ecosystem "the kind of high-impact platform we seek to support".

Lagarde eyes the exit 🏦

Christine Lagarde is planning to step down as ECB president before her term ends in 2027, sparking a succession scramble across Europe.

The intrigue: Insiders say Lagarde wants to let French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pick her replacement before the French presidential election next April.

  • Spain moves first: Madrid has already signaled it wants the top job, backing former central bank governor Pablo Hernández de Cos.

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