Facing mounting economic pressure at home, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko—Vladimir Putin's staunchest ally—is tentatively trying to repair ties with the West to gain sanctions relief.
Why it matters: For decades, Lukashenko has masterfully played Russia and the West against each other to maintain his grip on power.
His latest outreach is a high-stakes attempt to show he is "not merely Putin's pawn" as his Soviet-style economy falters.
🥔 State of Play: From war boom to potato bust
Initially, Russia's war in Ukraine was an economic windfall for Minsk.
War footing: Hundreds of Belarusian companies began supplying Russia's military with everything from ammunition to uniforms.
Consumer gaps: Belarusian businesses rushed to fill the void left by Western brands in Russia.
GDP surge: This led to strong GDP growth of about 4% in both 2023 and 2024, and a 32% jump in incomes since the war began.
Yes, but: The good times are fading as serious problems emerge.
Worker scarcity: The country has up to 600,000 fewer workers, representing about 10% of the workforce.
Rampant inflation: Prices surged, peaking at 18% in July 2022. Lukashenko responded by banning price increases on hundreds of goods.
Symbolic shortage: This spring, Belarus—a nation that eats more potatoes per capita than any other—ran out of potatoes, with prices rising 10% between January and March.
"Why are you whining?... Just plant two furrows and harvest two sacks."
— Alexander Lukashenko, advising citizens to grow their own potatoes.
🤝 The Diplomatic Dance
With his economy struggling, Lukashenko is returning to his "usual cycle" of maneuvering between Putin and the West.
Seeking relief: Lukashenko wants "some kind of rehabilitation and sanctions relief", including allowing the national airline to fly commercial routes again and getting spare parts for his aircraft fleet.
The price: Western officials made it clear that releasing political prisoners was the "price of entry to any talks".
High-level meetings: Lukashenko has met with US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Eastern Europe Christopher Smith five times since Donald Trump's inauguration. A US envoy's visit in June led to the release of opposition leader Sergei Tsikhanouski.
"If it weren't for Putin, he would be long gone."
— Sergei Tsikhanouski, exiled opposition leader.
"The war has become a blessing for Lukashenko. He is making serious money off the Ukrainians' blood."
— Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, exiled opposition leader whom many Belarusians see as the legitimate president.
The bottom line: The opposition fears Western leaders will fall for a "false signal of change". While some prisoners have been released, hundreds were arrested at the same time, and over 1,100 political prisoners remain behind bars.
As Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya says, Lukashenko is playing the same game he has for years, "trying to create leverage for himself, not for all Belarusian people".