On The Deals Shaping Our Economy
Ika here. Wall Street braced for a blockbuster fourth quarter. Instead, the listing window is shutting one deal at a time. The gravitational force is one company: Anthropic. Meanwhile, this year's tech listings trade about 23% below their first-day price. Also today: Burnham bets on Europe, Merz rides into Kyiv, and Bosnia votes with Moscow watching.
🧊 1. The IPO deep freeze
Why it matters: 2026 was a banker's dream. SpaceX raised a record $86bn in June. Now the pipeline is draining just as everyone expected a flood.
By the numbers:
~23%: average slide in 2026 tech listings since day one (BCA Research)
~$50bn: SB Energy's target valuation - with zero facilities online
€6bn+: possible value of Blackstone's Hotel Investment Partners, whose Spanish IPO may now wobble
Between the lines: The usual excuses look thin. The S&P 500 sits near record highs. The Vix is quiet. That's normally a green light.
The real problem is pricing - and buyers burned by first-day pops that fade within weeks.
Zoom out: The chill is global.
London: Waterstones and Loveholidays have delayed. Dangote Cement is the only other large London IPO still expected this year.
Asia: AS Watson awaits a nod from China's cyber regulator.
Hospitality: Accor-backed Ennismore may push back its New York timeline.
The bottom line: All the names we had for 2026 are being pushed back into 2027. Mid-November is now the market's referendum on AI valuations.
🇬🇧 2. Burnham kicks open the Brexit door
The backstory: On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Andy Burnham told Ursula von der Leyen the UK was ready to rethink its EU ties - membership included.
A week later, Labour's Liverpool conference cheered as he floated a customs union, the single market, or going "all the way."
What they're saying:
"Welcome back," said Emmanuel Macron, switching to English - then added the catch: "You cannot pick and choose among the Union's freedoms."
"There will be no cherry-picking. The single market is not à la carte." - Michel Barnier
Burnham, Nigel Farage said, has "opened the door to Reform in the most extraordinary way."
By the numbers:
59% vs 32%: Britons backing rejoining vs opposing (YouGov, last month)
35%: support for rejoining if it means the euro and Schengen
Three-fifths: of French MPs and senators needed to ratify - or a referendum
The intrigue: This is a political play as much as a policy one. Burnham won a Leave-voting seat in June promising not to reopen old wounds. His strategists now see "Rejoin" as the tool to claw voters back from the Greens.
Yes, but: Paris is the gatekeeper.
And Marine Le Pen, sworn to block EU enlargement, could win France's presidency next year.
What we're watching: Burnham's first meeting with Friedrich Merz in Berlin next week - the first real test of whether this is strategy or trial balloon.
🇷🇺 3. Russia's long reach: Kyiv and Sarajevo
Two European fronts. Moscow's fingerprints on both.
"Ukraine is facing decisive weeks… you can rely on us…Germany's security also depends on the outcome of this war."
Zoom in - Kyiv: Merz rolled into Kyiv by train this morning, flanked by economy minister Katherina Reiche and German executives.
Hours earlier, Russia's foreign ministry warned foreigners and diplomats to stay out of Ukraine.
Russian drones hit two of Kyiv's Dnipro bridges on Friday and Saturday.
Why it matters: Germany has overtaken the US as Ukraine's largest military donor, with roughly €10bn a year pledged after Merz loosened the debt brake. Bringing CEOs signals Berlin wants a return on investment - reforms, anti-corruption, German weapons orders.
The catch at home: Merz faces record-low approval. AfD surged in two eastern states; Die Linke won Berlin. Both oppose arming Kyiv.
Zoom in - Bosnia: Voters pick Milorad Dodik's successor today.
Dodik's pick, Savo Minić, leads Branko Blanuša just 49–45 (Metrics Consulting).
Putin met Dodik on Tuesday and promised gas prices won't change.
The intrigue: Washington is no ally of the status quo. US pressure helped push out High Representative Christian Schmidt; his American deputy now holds the job. A gas pipeline deal went to a US company linked to the Trump family. Europe stands alone defending Dayton.
What we're watching: Serbia votes later this month, where Aleksandar Vučić faces the toughest test of his 12-year rule.
The bottom line: "Trust in Bosnia and Herzegovina has never been lower," Dodik told Putin. Tonight's count decides whether he's describing the country - or his own grip.
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