On The Deals Shaping Our Economy
Good morning. The geopolitical map has been redrawn.
The big picture: U.S. forces have struck Caracas, seizing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and flying him to New York to face federal charges on Jan. 3.
But insiders warn this isn't the clean break many expected. The regime’s structure remains intact, and the White House is eyeing oil—not democracy—as the endgame.
🏛️ The Courtroom
The latest: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appeared in Manhattan federal court Monday, formally entering a plea of "not guilty" to charges of narco-terrorism.
Driving the news: In a defiant display, Maduro told the court he is "innocent" and asserted that he is still president of Venezuela.
Addressing the judge, he claimed he was "kidnapped" by U.S. special forces during the extraction operation.
1 Big Thing: The "Palace Coup" Theory
The stunner: The extraction operation met little resistance, suggesting internal betrayal rather than a hostile takeover.
Francisco Rodríguez, a top Venezuelan economist, tells Foreign Affairs the ease of the capture "strongly suggests that there was some type of internal collaboration" from Maduro's own guards.
The catch: While Maduro is gone, his Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, has stepped up to lead the existing apparatus.
What to watch: Whether the remaining regime brokers a deal. Trump has signaled he is willing to work with the current structure—even Maduro's own people—if they meet U.S. demands.
"You take out the head, but the structure continues to be in control."
🚢 It’s About The Oil
Make no mistake: The White House isn't looking to install opposition leader María Corina Machado.
Trump explicitly stated she "doesn't have the respect necessary to lead".
The pivot: Trump wants Washington to indefinitely "run the country," a clear signal he intends to place U.S. companies in charge of Venezuela's vast oil reserves.
Reality check: Experts predict a scenario where American firms run the oil industry "as if it were a United States protectorate".
By the numbers:
80%: The portion of Venezuelans living in poverty today.
700%: The projected inflation rate for Venezuela in 2026.
Triple: The potential increase in GDP per capita if sanctions lift and oil flows.
⚠️ The Chaos Factor
Be smart: Just because Maduro is in a cell doesn't mean the streets are safe.
Analysts have long warned that a forced ouster creates a power vacuum ripe for "protracted low-intensity warfare".
The threat: Venezuela is packed with heavily armed nonstate groups, including the ELN (Colombian guerrillas) and the Tren de Aragua criminal network.
The fear: Without a plan, the country could devolve into anarchy, looking less like a nascent democracy and more like a violent conflict zone rife with assassinations and bombings.
"Violent shortcuts are only likely to make matters worse."
🌍 The Wider View: Multilateralism On Life Support
Zoom out: The Venezuela operation comes as the U.S. aggressively pulls the plug on global cooperation. Upon returning to office, Trump withdrew from the Paris climate accord, the WHO, and the UN Human Rights Council.
The new normal: With global institutions dismissed as bloated and outdated, regional blocs are scrambling to fill the void.
Asia: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is now the world’s largest free trade agreement, bypassing U.S. leadership entirely.
Latin America: Groups like the Pacific Alliance are forging their own trade deals with Singapore and the EU.
The bottom line: As Washington goes it alone, the rest of the world is learning to organize without America.
What's next: Trump has threatened to "attack Venezuela again" if the remaining leadership doesn't collaborate.
Expect days of high-stakes poker between Caracas and D.C., with the Venezuelan people caught in the middle.
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