Ishiba joins a long list of Japanese prime ministers who have lasted only about a year in office

🇯🇵 Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced on Sunday he is resigning to make way for a new leader.

  • His decision comes less than a year after he assumed the premiership in October 2024.

  • This triggers an emergency presidential race within the ruling, but fractured, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Why it matters: Ishiba said the resignation was aimed at preventing a "decisive split" within the LDP, whose hold on power has weakened significantly on his watch.

  • The LDP, Japan's dominant party for most of the last 70 years, now must rule through a coalition with the Komeito party and other smaller parties.

The backstory 📉: The move preempted a party vote where a majority of LDP parliamentarians were expected to force a leadership election.

  • Analysts attribute the setbacks to public dismay over inflation and internal party issues that predate Ishiba's leadership.

Lessons from the past: Ishiba joins a long list of Japanese prime ministers who have lasted only about a year in office, continuing a pattern of frequent leadership turnover.

What to watch 👀: Speculation is now focused on potential successors.

  • The leadership will likely be contested by Sanae Takaichi, a conservative who narrowly lost to Ishiba in 2024, and Shinjiro Koizumi. Other candidates are also expected to emerge.

The bottom line: The LDP faces "extreme strain" as its factions battle over how to steer Japan through steep inflation, demographic decline, and a worsening geopolitical environment. The rise of small, populist opposition parties attracting younger voters has worsened these strains.

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