Ika here. On Friday evening, Lindsey Graham stood in central Kyiv, a US-Ukraine flag pin on his dark suit, and told reporters he had finally cornered Vladimir Putin. Hours later, after the flight home, the 71-year-old senator passed away. He spent three decades pushing America into fights - Iraq, then Iran, then a harder line on Russia - and he died in the 48-hour window when two of those wars broke open at once. Iran is choking the Strait of Hormuz, the artery for a fifth of the world's oil. Russia claims a shattered Ukrainian city while Zelenskyy fires his entire cabinet. Graham's last week touched all of it: a Kyiv handshake, a Russia sanctions bill, a prophecy that Trump would seize Hormuz "by force." The pressure doctrine he built now outlives him.

US Senator Lindsey Graham died Saturday night at his Washington home, aged 71, one day after meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. His office blamed a "brief and sudden illness" and gave no other detail.

Why it matters: Graham was the most influential hawk in Congress and, over the past 18 months, the loudest voice pushing Trump toward war with Iran and a crackdown on Russia. His death lifts the hand off both levers at the exact moment both wars are peaking.

The South Carolina Republican served more than 30 years in Congress, in the Senate since 2003, and chaired the Senate budget committee. He was cruising toward a new six-year term in November.

The arc: In 2015 Graham called Trump "a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot" who should "go to hell." He remade himself into one of the president's closest confidants and golf partners.

Trump ordered flags at half-mast for nearly a week. On Truth Social he called Graham "one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known." He told NBC they had spoken hours earlier: "He sounded a little tired but perfect."

The last act: Graham flew to Kyiv to lock in White House support for a bill tightening Russia sanctions. Standing in the capital Friday, he said: "I think we've got the best chance since I've been coming here in the last five years to get Putin to the peace table."

Zelenskyy, who met him twice in his final week, called him "a true defender of freedom." Netanyahu said Israel had lost "one of its greatest friends."

The prophecy: Three weeks ago, on CBS, Graham forecast the crisis now unfolding: "If this deal fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz over by force ... and if Iran contests control of the strait by the United States, we will obliterate them."

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed until further notice," its Revolutionary Guards said, and unleashed its biggest missile and drone barrage in weeks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Oman.

Why it matters: Roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas moves through that waterway. Tehran is betting it can squeeze global energy hard enough to make Trump flinch.

Washington answered with a third wave of strikes Saturday, about 140 targets, then a fourth wave Sunday. The US insists the strait stays open. A multinational naval center confirmed the southern route near Oman is still passable but rated the threat "severe."

The bet: "They are gambling," said Sanam Vakil of Chatham House. "They feel they have to do this to survive." Tehran, she said, is wagering "that Trump is risk-averse and that they can absorb the 'new normal' - low-level conflict - and wear the US down. But this is a quagmire."

Between the lines: This is a new, untested regime. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the first US-Israeli strikes; his son Mojtaba now holds power and has vowed to avenge "the blood of all those martyred."

The June 17 memorandum was meant to hold: a 60-day ceasefire, a reopened strait, no fees on ships, prewar shipping levels by July 17. Instead, Saturday's talks in Muscat collapsed with no concessions.

Trump says Iran walked: "They gave up everything ... And then within an hour, they launched a drone and a ship. I said, 'you people are sick.'" Iran's negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hit back on X: "The era of one-sided deals is OVER ... Reality is knocking."

The bottom line: Vakil is blunt. "This is not the old Iran, this is the new Iran."

Zelenskyy is firing Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and overhauling his government, the third shake-up since Russia's 2022 invasion and the second in under a year.

Driving the news: Naftogaz chief Sergii Koretskyi is the frontrunner to replace her. "Personnel changes will begin in Ukraine to ensure the implementation of the updated political strategy," Zelenskyy posted Sunday. Svyrydenko is likely headed to Washington as ambassador, where she built ties across Trump's cabinet negotiating the minerals deal.

Why it matters: Kyiv is rewiring its leadership in the fifth year of war, just as the fighting turns. Ukraine is hammering Russian oil and arms plants deep inside Russia. At the Nato summit in Ankara on Wednesday, Trump agreed to let Ukraine produce Patriot interceptors, a top Kyiv demand against Russia's ballistic missiles.

The other front: Russia is grinding toward Kostyantynivka from three directions. The city once forged the ruby-red stars atop the Kremlin's towers. Its prewar population of 70,000 is down to about 2,000, living without gas, water or power under constant drone fire.

Putin claimed Friday he had captured it. Zelenskyy called that "just another Russian lie, an attempt to generate some kind of news."

The grim math: Russia lost about 9 sq km inside Ukraine in June, its second net-negative month of 2026. CSIS estimates 1.4 million Russian casualties since 2022; Ukraine, 525,000 to 625,000.

What's next: Zelenskyy wants parliament to confirm his new cabinet within weeks, with defence ties to the US and Europe and EU integration at the top of the list.

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