On The Deals Shaping Our Economy
Sir Keir Starmer is fighting for his political life as a rebellion within his own party collides with a full-blown exodus of his inner circle.
The UK Prime Minister is defying growing calls to resign, even as the "Mandelson scandal" turns a localized fire into a five-alarm blaze.
Why it matters: The stability of the British government is wobbling. Markets are noticing.
Sterling and gilts took a hit Monday as investors braced for a potential lurch to the left should Starmer be toppled.
The internal revolt: In a stunning move, Anas Sarwar, the leader of Scottish Labour, publicly broke ranks demanding the PM step down less than two years after his landslide victory.
“There had been too many mistakes”
The exodus: Starmer’s two most vital pillars have vanished in 48 hours.
Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigned Sunday, followed Monday by Director of Communications Tim Allan.
"I have decided to stand down to allow a new Number 10 team to be built"
Between the lines: Tensions are peaking between Starmer and Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
The backdrop: It all traces back to the fallout from Lord Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US Ambassador and newly released files regarding his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
"International investors just see instability and want a premium."
Starmer’s attempt to rally remaining staff with a speech on "public duty" did little to calm the nerves of a jittery City.
Anglo’s Diamond Divorce 💎
The world’s most famous diamond brand, De Beers, is nearing a historic ownership shift.
Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad confirmed Monday that the mining giant is "relatively far advanced" in selling the unit to a public-private consortium.
The big picture: Anglo is slimming down to survive after dodging a BHP takeover last year.
But the timing is brutal - the diamond market is cratering due to lab-grown competition and a luxury slowdown in China.
The players: The government of Botswana is the "key determinant," according to Wanblad to the FT.
Expect Gaborone to take a significantly larger stake alongside private entities.
“It would probably be a consortium composed of both government and private entities”
The friction: Analysts argue Anglo is "selling at the bottom," but Wanblad is unmoved.
"We should really focus on the stuff that makes the best returns for our shareholders, and it wouldn't be holding on to De Beers."
The big picture: While the diamond market struggles, Botswana’s Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe is projecting a 3.1% economic expansion for 2026. It’s a hopeful sign for a nation emerging from two years of contraction.
Yes, but: The recovery is fragile. Diamonds provide 75% of the country's foreign exchange. With a stockpile nearly double its target levels, the government is desperate to pivot.
"Without major economic reforms growth was likely to remain below potential"
The bottom line: To hit that 3.1% target, Botswana must find a way to grow that doesn't rely solely on what comes out of the ground.
Trump’s Cuba Squeeze 🛢️
Havana is running dry. Starting Tuesday, international airlines will be unable to refuel in Cuba as President Donald Trump intensifies a blockade on the island’s oil supplies.
The impact: Air Canada has already suspended flights. Others - including Spanish and Mexican carriers -are scrambling to add refueling stops in the Caribbean.
The energy crisis: Cuba hasn't received a fuel shipment in a month. Trump has successfully pressured Mexico to halt shipments and cut off the Venezuelan pipeline.
Tourism hit: The timing is disastrous, hitting at the peak of the tourist season. Last year saw an 18% drop in visitors; this fuel drought could be the final blow for many struggling hotels.
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