On The Deals Shaping Our Economy
Good morning. Ika Here. The world is spinning fast: The Fed chair is facing a criminal probe, gold is parabolic, and the U.S. is flexing military muscle from Caracas to Tehran.
Here is your morning briefing.
🏛️ The Fed Under Siege
Federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell, a stunning escalation in the clash between the White House and the central bank.
The backdrop: While the probe officially centers on a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters, Powell explicitly linked the threat of indictment to his refusal to bow to President Trump’s demands for lower interest rates.
Powell pushes back: In a video statement, the Chair called the move “unprecedented” and a pretext to destroy the bank's independence.
"I don’t know anything about it, but he’s certainly not very good at the Fed... What should pressure him is the fact that rates are far too high"
Market panic: Investors are fleeing to safety. Gold hit a record high of $4,600 a troy ounce, and silver jumped to $84.60.
The plot twist: Instead of forcing Powell out, the aggression may have backfired. Sources say Powell—whose term as chair ends in May—is now considering staying on the board as a governor until 2028 simply to block Trump from filling the seat.
The backlash to the DOJ probe was immediate and historic. In a rare joint statement, every living former Fed chair—Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and Alan Greenspan—condemned the investigation.
"This is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets... with highly negative consequences for inflation and the functioning of their economies"
🇨🇺 Trump Targets Cuba
Fresh off the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, President Trump has turned his sights on Havana, demanding the Cuban regime negotiate "BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE".
Why it matters: The administration is leveraging the shock of the Venezuela operation to pressure regional adversaries. Trump declared Cuba will receive "NO MORE OIL OR MONEY".
The threat: While Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One regarding military action that "I don't think we need any action," he also shared a fake image of himself smoking a cigar in front of the Cuban flag and endorsed the idea of Marco Rubio as "president of Cuba".
On the ground: Rep. Carlos Giménez (R-Fla.) says the diaspora sees "a light at the end of that tunnel".
🇮🇷 Iran: Bloodshed and a Nuclear Offer
Iran is boiling over. Reports indicate nearly 500 to 1,000+ protesters have been killed in a crackdown sparked by economic collapse, with bodies reportedly lined up outside hospitals.
The twist: Amid the chaos, Trump revealed Sunday that Iran reached out "to negotiate a nuclear deal".
The warning: Trump said a meeting is being set up but warned the U.S. might act militarily if the killing of civilians continues: "It looks like it [crossed a red line]... We are looking at very strong options".
Between the lines: Options on the table include cyberattacks ("not kinetic") or moving an aircraft carrier strike group, though Tehran has threatened to target U.S. bases if attacked.
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