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On The Deals Shaping Our Economy

Ika Here. Trump has told every nation eyeing a tax on American tech to brace for a 100% tariff that shreds any trade pact in its path. Apple, having bled $263 billion in a single session, is quietly begging Washington to let it buy chips from a firm the Pentagon ties to China's military. A propeller plane has gouged a hole in Beijing's tallest tower, six kilometres from Xi Jinping's front door, and the state has gone silent. Beijing's labs have narrowed the AI gap with America to its slimmest in over a year. And here at home, a vigilante deadline has Pretoria cancelling police leave and readying the army for Monday.

🇿🇦 June 30th

Anti-migrant protests have already outrun any full year of the 2020s, and June 30th is the date the country is watching.

March and March, a vigilante outfit founded in 2024 by DJ Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma, set the deadline for undocumented migrants to leave.

Its isiZulu rallying cry translates as: "They must go! Enough!"

The detail. Census data put the foreign-born population near 5%.

The World Bank and OECD find migrants are net job creators, setting up firms and lifting demand. The Helen Suzman Foundation notes they commit fewer crimes on average than locals.

The subtext. Yet 42% of South Africans told the HSRC in 2025 they want "no immigrants," the highest share since polling began in 2003.

Next move. Police leave is cancelled. The army is on standby.

Ramaphosa drew the line on June 7th: protesters "deserved to be heard" but could not "take the law into their own hands."

The real story. Even a quiet Monday leaves the brand bruised. Foreign governments are already running repatriation flights, and pan-African goodwill is thin.

🐉 The macro: China narrows the gap

On June 13th, Beijing lab Zhipu (Z.ai) released GLM 5.2, pitched as "a step closer to frontier intelligence for everyone." Artificial Analysis ranks it the most intelligent open-source model going, fourth overall, ahead of Google's Gemini.

The quantum. It runs at less than a tenth of the price of Anthropic's Fable 5, with weights released publicly.

China is now competing on ability, cost and openness at once.

What they're not saying. Cheaper is not always cheaper. Chinese models burn far more tokens to reason.

A Georgia Tech study found a DeepSeek model used 23 times more tokens than its OpenAI rival for the same result. On one software-engineering benchmark, GLM 5.2 cost more than US systems.

For context. America still leads. Fable 5 is roughly 17% cleverer on average. On private benchmarks the gap stretches to eight to ten months.

🍎 Apple's blacklist gamble

Apple wants Washington's blessing to buy from the enemy list. It is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to purchase memory chips from CXMT, a Chinese firm on the Pentagon's military blacklist for alleged ties to the People's Liberation Army.

How we got here. The AI boom has vacuumed up advanced memory, choking the supply of conventional DRAM. Apple raised MacBook and iPad prices on Thursday, then watched $263 billion vanish from its market value in a day, its second-largest drop ever.

The detail. Apple is not legally barred from buying CXMT chips. The 1260H list carries reputational weight, not penalties. The White House also told Commerce to pause adding CXMT to the binding Entity List during trade talks, opening Apple's window.

"Apple choosing to partner with a Chinese military company would be a grave mistake."

John Moolenaar, Republican chair of the House China Committee

The bigger play. Outside China, memory flows from three firms: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. Apple wants a fourth option, and may pay for it in political fire.

💻 Trump's 100% digital tax warning

Tax American tech, face a 100% tariff. Full stop. Trump issued the threat on Friday, aimed at any country weighing a digital services tax on US firms. The levy would override existing trade deals.

Why you should care. The European Parliament recently backed an EU-wide digital tax, though unanimous support across all 27 states looks unlikely. The UK and France already run levies that strain ties with Washington.

Next step. The White House says it would invoke Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the same lever Trump used for his first-term China tariffs.

"Unilateral measures targeting such legitimate policies are unjustified. If pursued, the EU will respond swiftly and decisively."

European Commission spokesperson

The real story. Canada already blinked, scrapping its digital tax last year to soothe Washington. Trump is betting Europe folds too. Brussels is betting it won't have to.

A hole in the side of the CITIC Tower in Beijing on June 26, 2026. PETER CATTERALL / AFP

✈️ A plane hits Beijing's tallest tower

A light aircraft struck the 528-metre Citic Tower on Friday. China said nothing.

Cut to it. The two-seat propeller plane, traced to the Eastern Pioneer flying school, hit a high floor around 6pm local time. Debris fell, windows shattered, and the block was cordoned off by nightfall.

Know this. Beijing's airspace is among the tightest on earth, and the tower sits kilometres from Zhongnanhai, the Party's inner sanctum. This should not have happened.

State media published nothing. Footage was scrubbed within hours.

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