🥊 Trade War Detente Shattered

Irakli Rekhviashvili
October 12, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

The fragile truce in the U.S.-China trade war is over.

Why it matters: The world's two largest economies are locked in a new, rapidly escalating conflict, threatening global supply chains with fresh tariffs and export controls.

Driving the news: A flurry of retaliatory measures has pushed relations to a breaking point.

China struck first this week, expanding its export controls on rare earths and related technologies and launching an antitrust probe into U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm.

The White House responded with a haymaker:

President Trump threatened 100% additional tariffs on Chinese goods and "large scale" export controls on virtually every product they make.

The clock is ticking: Trump's new measures are scheduled to take effect on or before November 1.

Between the Lines: Trump's response is being viewed as either a calibrated approach or a significant tell.

By setting the tariff deadline for Nov. 1, two days after a scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping, Trump is creating room for a potential off-ramp.

When asked if he'd back down if China reversed its controls, Trump said:

"We're gonna have to see what happens. That's why I made it November 1".

Trump

But one former U.S. official per the Financial Times called it a "mega Taco" — Trump always chickens out — and a "clear indication of weakness".

Beijing is escalating first to force a negotiation reset, rather than waiting passively.

China believes the U.S. has a deep-rooted sense of arrogance and that it can impose tariffs with impunity.

"We do not want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight".

"Should the US persist in its course, China will resolutely take corresponding measures".

China's Commerce Ministry

🦅 U.S. China hawks inside the administration feel vindicated, with one official saying "Christmas has come early".

They hope Trump will now greenlight aggressive security measures against Beijing.

This isn't their first rodeo. The escalation ends a détente reached in Geneva this May.

Before that, the two nations were in a virtual trade embargo after Trump imposed 145% tariffs and Xi retaliated with 125% levies.
A former U.S. official compared the showdown to a legendary boxing match: "I haven't had so much fun since the Thrilla in Manila". 🗓️

What's Next: All eyes are on a potential face-to-face meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea.

Trump is sending mixed signals, first casting doubt on the meeting, then later saying they would "probably meet".

The November 1 tariff deadline is the ultimate pressure point.

China says it is unlikely to back down, with one scholar noting Beijing has become accustomed to the 'paper tiger' behaviour of the US.

🥊 Trade War Detente Shattered

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