On The Deals Shaping Our Economy
Ika here. Count the tonnes. Donald Trump said Friday that Moscow will ship up to 4.8mn tonnes of diesel to world markets. Before 2025, Russia moved 2.6mn tonnes by sea every month. The entire pledge covers less than two months of normal flow.
That gap is the story of this week.
1 big thing: ⛽ Trump strikes a deal with Putin
Donald Trump has cut a deal with Vladimir Putin to put Russian diesel back on world markets - weeks before the midterms.
Why it matters: Diesel moves trucks, tractors and factories. US pump prices hit a record $6.53 in recent weeks. Farmers and truckers are hurting - and voting next month.
By the numbers:
300,000 tonnes now. 500,000 in November. 1mn after that.
Another 3mn - if Russia's refineries can manage it.
Prices are "COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!"
"Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilised world."
Between the lines: The bottleneck isn't the border. It's the refinery. Russian plants run at roughly 60% capacity after Ukrainian drone strikes.
The intrigue: The deal could shrink supply. Cheaper diesel relative to crude pushes refining margins negative - and Asian refiners may throttle back.
Zoom out: Russian seaborne diesel exports have dwindled to almost nothing this year. The US hasn't bought a drop since July 2022.
What's next: Treasury's OFAC is rushing out a temporary general licence. Kyiv's reply, from a senior official per the FT: "We will burn [Russian] refineries."
🇳🇬 Nigeria's pre-election petrol discount
Driving the news: State-owned NNPC is shaving N66 a litre (~$0.05) off petrol at its stations - now extended to Oct. 31.
Why it matters: President Bola Tinubu scrapped the costly fuel subsidy in 2023 - the reform investors cheered.
He faces voters in January.
What they're saying:
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele: "It is not a subsidy. The government is just saying: we sell to you at cost."
Reality check: The cut is under 5%. Poorer Nigerians are sleeping near their workplaces to dodge transport costs.
What we're watching: If the discount outlives the election.
🌉 Russia goes after Kyiv's bridges
Driving the news: Russian jet-powered drones hit three Dnipro bridges in a week - Kyiv's North and South bridges, plus one in Zaporizhzhia.
Why it matters: Kyiv has ~4mn people and eight bridges. Lose one, and commuters, metro trains, ambulances and military supplies jam.
Zoom in:
One North Bridge strike landed shortly after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in Kyiv.
The South Bridge was hit three times, halting traffic and metro.
The next crossings: a hydro dam 16km north - or another 130km south.
By the numbers: At least 64 killed across Ukrainian cities in recent days. Ukraine downs just over half of Russia's jet drones, per Zelenskyy.
The weapons: Geran-4 and Geran-5 - jet-engined heirs to Iran's Shahed.
Ukraine's HUR says the Geran-4 now packs sharper autonomous navigation and a bridge-busting warhead.
What's next: Pontoon bridges are under debate - weeks to assemble. A homegrown anti-drone system could hit production lines by end-October.
The levity: Kyivans are sharing AI images of commuters crossing the Dnipro on paddleboards.
💻 Ukraine hits "Russia's Google"
Driving the news: Ukrainian drones struck two Yandex data centres - Ryazan on Thursday night, then Kaluga, its largest, early Friday.
Why it matters: The air war has a new front: servers.
Yandex runs Russia's search, email, cloud, AI, ride-hailing and food delivery.
By the numbers:
Kaluga lost several modules outright.
Yandex shares fell ~4% in Moscow.
Ryazan houses two of the three supercomputers that train Yandex's AI.
Ripple effect: Cloud clients stumbled - Russian Railways, telecoms giant MegaFon and several media sites.
The backstory: Russia has pounded Ukraine's data centres and telecoms for weeks.
In late September, 100,000 Kyiv-area households lost internet.
Zelenskyy: "...we always respond in kind."
What's next: Yandex can't say when the centres return to full strength. Ukrainian negotiators met Trump's envoys in the US Friday. No breakthrough expected.
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