🇭🇺 Trump-Putin Meeting Cancelled

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Today’s briefing:

Trump-Putin Meeting Cancelled
Will the Peso fall?
America’s Broken Talent Pipeline

Trump-Putin Talks Canceled

A high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has been canceled, the White House confirmed Tuesday.

The plan: The two leaders were expected to meet in Budapest, Hungary, in the coming weeks to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
The reversal: The decision to call off the meeting came just five days after Trump announced the plans following a phone call with Putin.
A White House official stated: "There are no plans for President Trump to meet with President Putin in the immediate future."

Why it matters

The abrupt cancellation is a stark acknowledgment by the White House that the gulf between Russia and Ukraine is too wide to reach a deal right now.

Trump's pivot: After announcing the summit last Thursday, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday he was having second thoughts.

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"I don't want to have a wasted meeting and a wasted time, so I will see what happens."

— President Donald Trump

Russia's stance: The Kremlin downplayed the scheduling:

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"You can't postpone what was not scheduled."

Kremlin spokesperson

Driving the News

The final nail in the coffin was a preparatory phone call on Monday between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Lavrov on Tuesday rejected any immediate ceasefire, stating it contradicted the understandings reached at the last Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska in August.

⚖️ The Other Big Problem: Putin's Warrant

A major logistical and political hurdle for the Budapest summit was the fact that Putin is wanted by the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes.

While Hungary had pledged to ensure Putin's safe passage, Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, issued a stark warning about Putin flying through Polish airspace.

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"We cannot guarantee that an independent Polish court will not order a hypothetical plane carrying Putin to be brought down to hand over the suspect to The Hague."

— Radosław Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister

🚀 Massive Russian Strikes

The day after the summit was officially canceled, Russia unleashed a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine on Wednesday including 28 ballistic and cruise missiles, and 405 drones.

At least seven civilians were killed, including a young mother and her two small children. Dozens more were injured across 10 regions, with one person killed in a drone attack on a kindergarten in Kharkiv.
The strikes damaged critical energy and railway infrastructure, causing emergency power blackouts and leaving communities without heat or water in cold temperatures.

☢️ The Bottom Line: Nuclear Posturing

As the attacks hit Ukraine, Putin oversaw a strategic nuclear forces training exercise via video link.

The drill involved launching a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, a Sineva ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine, and cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers.
The timing of the exercise, as peace efforts unravel, has drawn significant attention.

🇦🇷 Trump's "Argentina First" gamble faces heat

The Trump administration's massive $40 billion rescue package for Argentina is facing a fierce two-front battle: a political mutiny at home and deep skepticism from global investors.

Why it matters: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is spearheading the effort to prop up the libertarian government of Argentine President Javier Milei, seen by the administration as a crucial Latin American ally.

But the move is rankling some of the president's closest supporters.

🔴 The backlash at home

Bessent has defended the rescue, which includes a $20 billion swap line and another potential $20 billion in private-sector loans, as essential for US strategic interests.

But the plan has drawn criticism from across the political spectrum.

"Maga" allies are questioning the "America First" credentials of the bailout.

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"Tell me how it's America First to bailout a foreign country with $20 or even $40 BILLION taxpayer dollars. Many [Americans] have zero savings and some are maxing out credit cards to survive."

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)

Republicans in farm states are furious, especially after Trump noted US plans to buy Argentine beef.

The anger is compounded by China replacing US soybean orders with purchases from Argentina.

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"That really went down like a lead balloon."

— Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.)

Democrats on Capitol Hill accuse the administration of improperly trying to influence Argentina's upcoming midterm elections, alleging Trump tied the aid to a favorable outcome for Milei.

📉 The market's doubt

Despite the huge US support package, investors are betting that Argentina will be forced to sharply devalue its currency anyway.

Offshore bets imply a 12% drop for the peso over the next three months.
This weekend's midterm elections are seen as "make or break" for Milei's economic reform program.
Milei's core policy of propping up the currency to fight inflation has drained the country's dollar reserves and is widely seen as unsustainable.

🗣️ The administration's case

Bessent and other supporters are framing the rescue as a necessary move to counter instability and support a free-market ally.

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"We do not want another failed state in Latin America, and a strong, stable Argentina as a good neighbor is explicitly in the strategic interest of the United States."

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

🗓️ What to watch

All eyes are on this Sunday's election.

If Milei's La Libertad Avanza party performs poorly (analysts suggest below 35% of the vote), it will be much harder for him to pass his promised tax and labor reforms—and will likely trigger the currency devaluation investors are already bracing for.

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🧠 America's Broken Talent Pipeline

The U.S. innovation edge relies on attracting the world's best talent, but its immigration system is stuck in the 1990s and failing to meet national goals, according to a new policy paper from the Aspen Economic Strategy Group.

Why it matters: The system is no longer a "nimble conduit for top minds" but a "maze that deters and immobilizes them," writes author Jeremy Neufeld.

This misalignment threatens U.S. economic leadership and national security.

By the numbers 📊

The system is defined by outdated caps and random chance, not strategic selection.

The H-1B Lottery: Employers register for more than three times as many H-1B visas as are available. The 85,000 private-sector visas are then awarded by random lottery, not merit.
The Green Card Illusion: The U.S. issues only 140,000 employment-based green cards annually.
The Reality: Most of those go to spouses and children. Only about 60,000 go to principal workers based on their skills.
The Backlog: The resulting queue now exceeds one million people.

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"The country that won the space race and built the atom bomb by importing brains now asks them to draw lots for the right to wait."

— Jeremy Neufeld

The big picture: A self-inflicted wound

This broken pipeline isn't just an inconvenience; it's actively harming U.S. interests.

They fail to keep the talent they train. International education is the primary U.S. recruitment pathway, but only 37% of graduates stay long-term.

For bachelor's degrees, it's just 18%.

Why? The backlog. For immigrants from India in the EB-2 category (for advanced degrees), the projected wait time in 2030 is 436 years.
This isn't a typo. Neufeld notes, "Many Indian engineers enter a line knowing they will die before ever reaching the front."

Losing the Edge

National Security: Green card delays prevent vetted, foreign-born professionals on DoD projects from getting security clearances, which require citizenship.
Wasted Potential: Talent gets "professionally immobilized." Immigrants are trapped in visa-friendly academic jobs (which are exempt from H-1B caps) rather than joining the private sector or founding new companies.
Global Competition: Competitors are poaching the talent. Canada, the UK, and Germany have streamlined their systems. A recent Canadian program to poach 10,000 workers from the U.S. backlog filled up in 48 hours.

The bottom line: The U.S. is still the preferred destination for global talent, but it is "slipping through neglect."

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"The United States still possesses the institutions and talent clusters to make it the most fertile ground for ambition. What it lacks is policy worthy of its potential."