1 Big Thing: The massive U.S. military build-up off Venezuela's coast, initially billed as an anti-drug operation, has evolved into a "regime collapse" mission aimed at ousting President Nicolás Maduro.
Why it matters: The U.S. strategy is to make Maduro's inner circle believe that staying in power will be more costly than leaving. The priority has shifted from drug interdiction to forcing the departure of top Venezuelan officials—preferably by resignation, but with the clear threat of targeted military force.
"He has offered everything, you're right. You know why? Because he doesn't want to fuck around with the United States."
— Donald Trump, on concessions from Maduro
🎯 The Strategy: "Overwhelming Superiority"
The plan is not about "boots on the ground," according to one Venezuelan opposition figure. It's about demonstrating overwhelming military superiority to achieve political ends.
This is the largest U.S. deployment of warships and fighter jets to the Caribbean in more than 30 years.
Washington insiders report a hardening stance on Venezuela, with Florida hawks like Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the ascendant and previous negotiators sidelined.
The U.S. is waging a co-ordinated information war to unnerve Maduro's inner circle, with images of B-52 bombers (flying with transponders on), special forces "ghost ships," and training exercises circulating widely.
🇻🇪 Maduro's Inner Circle Scrambles
While Maduro publicly orders military drills to rally against a "gringo" invasion, his inner circle is reportedly showing clear signs of concern.
Well-connected business people report that top regime figures are switching mobile phones, sleeping in different locations each night, and swapping their Cuban bodyguards for fresh contingents.
Sources describe a "witch-hunt" for dissent within the security forces, with officials "spying" on their own ranks.
Analysts say the formal Venezuelan military is in a poor state of readiness, with much of its equipment unusable. However, Maduro also commands about a million well-armed irregular militia forces.
⏳ The Endgame and the Risks
What's at stake: Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, plus valuable deposits of gold and minerals. Trump reportedly views the country as "unfinished business" after his first-term "maximum pressure" sanctions failed to oust Maduro.
The risk: Some business leaders warn that "decapitating" the government could cause Venezuela to slide into civil war, similar to Libya or Iraq, if the U.S. "overplays its hand."
The opposition's hope: Conservative leader Maria Corina Machado, waiting in hiding, hopes the U.S. military will pave the way for Edmundo González—who the U.S. believes overwhelmingly won last year's stolen election—to take power.
The clock is ticking: U.S. forces cannot sustain their current state of readiness indefinitely, and the risk of an accident increases during the hurricane season, which lasts through November.
The Bottom Line:
"Trump doesn't talk about elections, the opposition or democracy. That leaves it open to him to define a win in Venezuela any way he wants. What he likes is being a showman. He wants lots of explosions."
— Former Trump administration official